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The second presidential debate, originally scheduled for Oct. 15, is now postponed to Oct. 22 because of President Trump’s COVID-19 diagnosis, but that hasn’t stopped him from floating the possibility of hosting a rally this weekend. We’ve started to get polls on what the public thinks of Trump’s diagnosis, and so far Americans, including some Republicans, say Trump didn’t take enough precautions. There are also signs that the episode may be hurting Trump’s reelection chances. Now, not every pollster has shown an uptick for Biden since we learned about Trump’s diagnosis last Friday, but Biden still got some of his best polls this week. We’ll continue to monitor polls for evidence of how Trump’s diagnosis has affected both the election and Americans’ views of the coronavirus.
2020 Election Coverage
We simulate the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often. The sample of 100 outcomes below gives you a good idea of the range of scenarios our model thinks is possible.
All possible Electoral College outcomes for each candidate, with higher bars showing outcomes that appeared more often in our 40,000 simulations
States that are forecasted to vote for one candidate by a big margin are at the ends of the path, while tighter races are in the middle. Bigger segments mean more Electoral College votes. Trace the path from either end to see which state could put one candidate over the top.
The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll. Click the buttons to see the ways each candidate’s outlook has changed over time.
The chances that these situations will crop up
Our model relies mainly on state polls, which it combines with demographic, economic and other data to forecast what will happen on Election Day. If you want to see a snapshot of what voters are thinking right now — with no fancy modeling — check out the national polls.
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